Coals Long Shadow
Why coal consumption will peak later and higher than net-zero trajectories suggest.
Specific Question Answered: How do we bridge the gap between capacity (GW) and generation (GWh)?
1. Primary Data and Key Figure
Analyzing the core metric reveals a different reality from the prevailing narrative. The most critical number to understand here is 275 GW (Projected peak coal capacity needed by 2030).
Key Finding
Despite rapid renewable capacity addition, base-load requirements and grid inertia mean absolute coal tonnage burned will continue to rise until at least 2035.
2. Data Analysis
We avoid smoothing curves where structural breaks exist. Utilizing data from our Data Hub, we reconstructed the index series.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Renewable Capacity Share | 42% |
| Renewable Generation Share | 22% |
3. FAQ
- What about battery storage?
- Pumped hydro and battery storage currently represent less than 2% of required daily balancing capacity.
4. Next Steps
The data suggests that current interventions are misaligned with the scale of the challenge. Explore our Interactive Tools to model alternative scenarios.