Research Report • 2023
The Capex Illusion
Central government capital expenditure vs private gross fixed capital formation.
Specific Question Answered: Is the "crowding-in" effect working?
1. Primary Data and Key Figure
Analyzing the core metric reveals a different reality from the prevailing narrative. The most critical number to understand here is ₹10 Lakh Crore (Budgeted central capex FY24).
Key Finding
The state is doing the heavy lifting. Central capex has doubled in 4 years, but private sector GFCF has barely kept pace with inflation.
2. Data Analysis
We avoid smoothing curves where structural breaks exist. Utilizing data from our Data Hub, we reconstructed the index series.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Public Capex Growth (FY20-24) | 125% |
| Private GFCF Growth (FY20-24) | 18% |
3. FAQ
- Are state governments also spending on capex?
- State capex execution rates hover around 65% of budgeted estimates, dragging down the national average.
4. Next Steps
The data suggests that current interventions are misaligned with the scale of the challenge. Explore our Interactive Tools to model alternative scenarios.