Institute of India
Research Report • 2023

The Manufacturing Stagnation

Analyzing the structural bottlenecks preventing factory job creation at scale.

Specific Question Answered: Why hasn't the PLI scheme generated mass employment?

1. Primary Data and Key Figure

Analyzing the core metric reveals a different reality from the prevailing narrative. The most critical number to understand here is 17% (Manufacturing share of GVA, stuck since 2011).

Key Finding

The elasticity of employment to growth has fallen drastically in manufacturing. While capital intensity rises, formal job creation per unit of output has halved since 2010.

2. Data Analysis

We avoid smoothing curves where structural breaks exist. Utilizing data from our Data Hub, we reconstructed the index series.

Table 1: Key Metrics Comparison
Metric Value
2010-20150.32
2015-20230.14

3. FAQ

Does this account for MSMEs?
Yes, though informal MSME data is harder to track, proxies suggest severe stagnation post-2016.

4. Next Steps

The data suggests that current interventions are misaligned with the scale of the challenge. Explore our Interactive Tools to model alternative scenarios.